1. The Golem of Prague

Overview

• 1.1 Statistical golems

• 1.2 Statistical rethinking

  • Is NHST falsificationist?

  • 1.2.1 Hypotheses are not models

    • Entropy and model identification

  • 1.2.2 Measurement matters

    • 1.2.2.1 Observation error

    • 1.2.2.2 Continuous hypotheses

  • 1.2.3 Falsification is consensual

• 1.3 Three tools for golem engineering

  • 1.3.1 Bayesian data analysis

    • Probability is not unitary

    • A little history

  • 1.3.2 Multilevel models

    • Multilevel election forecasting

  • 1.3.3 Model comparison and information criteria

    • The Neanderthal in you

• 1.4 Summary